https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022 - just bookmarking the predictions from vox -  Democrats will lose their majorities in the US House and Senate (95 percent)  Inflation in the US will average under 3 percent (80 percent)  Unemployment in the US will fall below 4 percent by November (80 percent)  The Supreme Court will overturn Roe v. Wade (65 percent)  Stephen Breyer will retire from the Supreme Court (55 percent)  Emmanuel Macron will be reelected as president of France (65 percent)  Jair Bolsonaro will be reelected as president of Brazil (55 percent)  Bongbong Marcos will be elected as president of the Philippines (55 percent)  Rebels will NOT capture the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa (55 percent)  China will not reopen its borders in the first half of 2022 (80 percent)  Chinese GDP will continue to grow for the first three quarters of the year (95 percent)  20 percent of US children between 6 months and 5 years old will have received at least one Covid vaccine by year’s end (65 percent)  The WHO will designate another variant of concern by year’s end (75 percent)  12 billion shots will be given out against Covid-19 globally by November 2022 ... (80 percent)  ... but at least one country will have less than 10 percent of people vaccinated with two shots by November 2022 — (70 percent)  A psychedelic drug will be decriminalized or legalized in at least one new US state (75 percent)  AI will discover a new drug — or an old drug fit for new purposes — that’s promising enough for clinical trials (85 percent)  US government will not renew the ban on funding gain-of-function research (60 percent)  The Biden administration will set the social cost of carbon at $100 per ton or more (70 percent)  2022 will be warmer than 2021 (80 percent)  Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast will win Best Picture (55 percent)  Norway will win the most medals at the 2022 Winter Olympics (60 percent)
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